Operational Hydrology with NOAA’s National Water Model

Currently at version 3.0, the National Water Model (NWM) provides 24x7 guidance for streamflow and other hydrologic components used by NWS River Forecast Centers, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and other government entities, along with research and commercial sectors. Based on the WRF-Hydro software architecture, it has been rapidly upgraded through six versions via a partnership between the NWS Office of Water Prediction (OWP), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

Building on NWM v2.2, NWM v3.0 became operational in summer 2023 and provides first-time total water level (TWL) forecasts for coastal areas of the CONUS, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Hawaii. Complementing regional products, the system simulates the additive impacts of storm surge, tides and freshwater flow. For the first time, NWM v3.0 also features coverage for portions of Alaska.

This presentation will provide an overview of current NWM operations and details on enhancements to TWL simulation capabilities arriving with NWM v3.1. It will also preview the transition to the Next Generation Water Resources Modeling Framework (NextGen) with NWM v4.0, and detail the Flood Inundation Mapping (FIM) capabilities supported by the NWM.

Brian Cosgrove has worked at the National Weather Service Office of Water Prediction since 2008. He is the Technical Director for the National Water Model (NWM), working with the National Center for Atmospheric Research and others to implement version 1.0 of the NWS’ first nationwide operational high resolution water resources forecast system into operations in August of 2016, and now leading the collaborative effort to implement enhanced versions of the system. Brian is involved in NWM design, onboarding, data dissemination and outreach. He also conducts coordination activities with partner agencies such as the USGS, USACE, NOS, and other private, public and academic groups. Brian got his Master’s degree in Meteorology from Penn State and his Bachelor’s degree in Atmospheric Science from Cornell University. Prior to joining the NWS, Brian worked at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center as a land surface scientist.