Calibrating Deterministic Models Using the hmer Package

Durham University

Online workshop: Learn to calibrate deterministic models using history matching with emulation and the R-package hmer!

T﻿his workshop will cover similar material to that addressed in the first day of the <a href="https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/calibrating-deterministic-and-stochastic-models-using-the-hmer-package-tickets-430882460037" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Workshop in December</a> - material on stochastic and bimodal models will be covered in the separate workshop found <a href="https://www.eventbrite.com/e/calibrating-stochastic-models-using-the-hmer-package-tickets-636547740427" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">here</a>. You are welcome to sign up for one or both.Complex infectious disease models are widely used by epidemiologists to improve our understanding of transmission dynamics and disease natural history, and to predict the possible effects of interventions. As the complexity of such models increases, however, it becomes increasingly challenging to robustly fit them to empirical data.History matching with emulation is a calibration method that has been used to calibrate models in a wide range of fields, including epidemiology, galaxy formation, and climate science. It can be used for any type of mathematical model, but is particularly useful for complex models, with long run times and/or large numbers of inputs and outputs, that often cannot be calibrated using other available methods. We have developed a new, user-friendly software package, hmer, that implements history matching with emulation, making it straightforward to calibrate models using this approach.In this online workshop, we will introduce you to the history matching and emulation framework, and guide you through using the technique to robustly calibrate deterministic models using hmer. More information about the hmer package can be found on <a href="https://hmer-package.github.io/website/" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">our website</a>The workshop will consist of hands-on, practical tutorials, interspersed with short presentations. The workshop will be suitable for anyone with a basic knowledge of mathematical modelling and R.Please contact Danny Scarponi (danny.scarponi@lshtm.ac.uk) if you have any questions about the workshop or the package. Tutors at the workshop will include:•     <a href="https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/andrew-iskauskas/" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Andrew Iskauskas</a>•     <a href="https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/michael-goldstein/" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Michael Goldstein</a>•     <a href="https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/aboutus/people/mccreesh.nicky" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Nicky McCreesh</a>•     <a href="https://medicine.exeter.ac.uk/people/profile/index.php?web_id=TJ_McKinley" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">TJ McKinley</a>•     <a href="https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/aboutus/people/scarponi.danny" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Danny Scarponi</a>•     <a href="https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/i-r-vernon/" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Ian Vernon</a>•     <a href="https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/aboutus/people/white.richard" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Richard White</a>Programme<ul><li>13.00: Welcome </li><li>1﻿3.15: Introduction to History Matching with Emulation</li><li>1﻿4.15: Guided R-practical on the calibration of deterministic models (part 1)</li><li>1﻿5.45: Break</li><li>1﻿6.00: Guided R-practical on the calibration of deterministic models (part 2)</li><li>1﻿7.30: Closing</li></ul>

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Calibrating Deterministic Models Using the hmer Package

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Calibrating Deterministic Models Using the hmer Package

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