Calibrating deterministic and stochastic models using the hmer package

Durham University

Online workshop: Learn to calibrate deterministic and stochastic models using history matching with emulation and the R-package hmer!

D﻿ue to high demand, we will be running this workshop again on <a href="https://www.eventbrite.com/e/calibrating-deterministic-and-stochastic-models-using-the-hmer-package-tickets-430882460037" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">December 8th-9th</a> - the material covered in both workshops will be the same.Complex infectious disease models are widely used by epidemiologists to improve our understanding of transmission dynamics and disease natural history, and to predict the possible effects of interventions. As the complexity of such models increases, however, it becomes increasingly challenging to robustly fit them to empirical data.History matching with emulation is a calibration method that has been used to calibrate models in a wide range of fields, including epidemiology, galaxy formation, and climate science. It can be used for any type of mathematical model, but is particularly useful for complex models, with long run times and/or large numbers of inputs and outputs, that often cannot be calibrated using other available methods. We have developed a new, user-friendly software package, hmer, that implements history matching with emulation, making it straightforward to calibrate models using this approach.In this two-day online workshop, we will introduce you to the history matching and emulation framework, and guide you through using the technique to calibrate both deterministic and stochastic models (including models with bimodal behaviour) using hmer. The first day of the workshop will deal with the calibration of deterministic models and will therefore be very similar to the workshop “An Introduction to History Matching with Emulation using the R-package hmer” held 24 May 2022. If you took part in that, you can join this workshop directly on the second day, when stochastic models will be analysed. More information about the hmer package can be found on <a href="https://hmer-package.github.io/website/" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">our website</a>The workshop will be run by a combination of members of the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene &amp; Tropical Medicine, and external speakers from Durham University and the University of Exeter. It will consist of hands-on, practical tutorials, interspersed with short presentations.The workshop will be suitable for anyone with a basic knowledge of mathematical modelling and R.Please contact Danny Scarponi (danny.scarponi@lshtm.ac.uk) if you have any questions about the workshop or the package. When you register for this workshop, please subscribe to our <a href="https://lists.lshtm.ac.uk/sympa/info/hmer_mailing_list" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">mailing list</a> to receive updates about the hmer package and future workshops.N﻿ote that, once subscribed, you can unsubscribe from the mailing list at any time. For information on how we use your data, please see our <a href="https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/sites/default/files/Mailing-List-Privacy-Notice.pdf" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">privacy notice</a> for LSHTM mailing list recipients and our corresponding <a href="https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/aboutus/organisation/data-protection" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Data Protection</a> pages. Tutors at the workshop will include:•     <a href="https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/andrew-iskauskas/" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Andrew Iskauskas</a>•     <a href="https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/michael-goldstein/" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Michael Goldstein</a>•     <a href="https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/aboutus/people/mccreesh.nicky" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Nicky McCreesh</a>•     <a href="https://medicine.exeter.ac.uk/people/profile/index.php?web_id=TJ_McKinley" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">TJ McKinley</a>•     <a href="https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/aboutus/people/scarponi.danny" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Danny Scarponi</a>•     <a href="https://www.durham.ac.uk/staff/i-r-vernon/" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Ian Vernon</a>•     <a href="https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/aboutus/people/white.richard" target="_blank" data-msys-clicktrack="0" rel="nofollow noopener noreferrer">Richard White</a>ProgrammeFirst day: <ul><li>13.00: Welcome </li><li>1﻿3.15: Introduction to History Matching with Emulation</li><li>1﻿4.15: Guided R-practical on the calibration of deterministic models (part 1)</li><li>1﻿5.45: Break</li><li>1﻿6.00: Guided R-practical on the calibration of deterministic models (part 2)</li><li>1﻿7.30: Closing</li></ul>S﻿econd day:<ul><li>1﻿3.00: Welcome</li><li>1﻿3.15: History Matching with Emulation and Stochastic Models</li><li>1﻿4.15: Guided R-practical on the calibration of stochastic and bimodal models (part 1)</li><li>1﻿5.45: Break</li><li>1﻿6.00: Guided R-practical on the calibration of stochastic and bimodal models (part 2)</li><li>1﻿7.30: Closing</li></ul>

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Calibrating deterministic and stochastic models using the hmer package

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