PIPE Workshop: Salma Mousa (UCLA)

In divided societies, high income inequality rarely produces class-based political coalitions. We test whether misperceptions about out-groups’ economic conditions help explain the limited support for redistributive and cross-group policies. In a representative survey of 3,300 adults in Greater Beirut, respondents were randomly assigned to a video documenting that income inequality between Lebanon's main religious groups is small, while overall inequality is high. The information produces a strong first stage: perceived inequality between sects falls by about 0.4 standard deviations and perceived similarity rises by about 0.3 standard deviations. These belief updates increase support for pro-poor redistribution, including higher top marginal tax rates and expanded social protection, and raise the salience of class identity. Political outcomes, however, do not move in the short run. We find no detectable changes in support for the sectarian governance system, civil marriage, or anti-corruption politicians, and no effects on real-world behaviors such as volunteering with a cross-sect NGO, applying for a civic internship, or attending an anti-corruption workshop. In a candidate-choice conjoint experiment, shared religion remains the dominant predictor of vote choice. Light-touch interventions correcting misperceptions can move redistributive preferences and identity salience, but are insufficient to erode sectarian attachments or spur costly engagement. (with Lydia Assouad, Augustin Bergeron, and Giulia Buccione)