Evaluating Wargaming as a Methodology

In this presentation, I evaluate the effectiveness of wargaming as a methodology for analyzing technology competition between rival nations, with a focus on the transformative role of aerial drones in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. My analysis begins by exploring the theoretical framework of wargaming and its potential to predict the strategic use of emerging technologies. It then examines three pre-2022 wargames—the CNAS's 2015 Game of Drones, the USAF's 2020 wargame, and RAND's 2014-2015 Baltic Defense Wargame—to assess their predictive accuracy regarding drone use in the conflict.

My findings reveal that wargames can successfully forecast future strategies for employing new technologies if they incorporate specific conditions, such as clearly defined capabilities and unbiased game design. I conclude by proposing enhancements to wargaming methodologies to improve their utility in studying technology competition, emphasizing the importance of focusing on specific technologies and strategic decision-making processes.