CEIRR CMC Seminar: Joseph Servadio on Predicting Tropical Flu Epidemics

The CEIRR CMC holds bi-monthly research seminars that feature leading researchers who utilize state-of-the-art computational methods to better understand respiratory viruses. These events are designed to facilitate in-depth discussions and provide ample opportunity for questions from the audience, with each seminar lasting 1 hour and 30 minutes.

After you register, click on the Eventbrite event page for a zoom link .

Dr Joseph Servadio is a postdoctoral fellow at Temple University.

https://science.psu.edu/bio/people/jjs7684

https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=TlMS6cgAAAAJ&hl=en

Abstract

Much of the world experiences influenza in yearly recurring seasons, particularly in temperate areas. These patterns can be considered repeatable if they occur predictably and consistently at the same time of year. In tropical areas, including southeast Asia, timing of influenza epidemics is less consistent, leading to a lack of consensus regarding whether influenza is repeatable. This study aimed to assess repeatability of influenza in Vietnam, with repeatability defined as seasonality that occurs at a consistent time of year with low variation. We developed a mathematical model incorporating parameters to represent periods of increased transmission and then fit the model to data collected from sentinel hospitals throughout Vietnam as well as four temperate control locations. Repeatability was evaluated through the variance of the timings of peak transmission. These variances were notably higher in Vietnam compared to the temperate locations, suggesting non-repeatable influenza patterns.

In the absence of repeatable influenza patterns, there is no clear time of year that is best for administering influenza vaccines. To evaluate how Vietnam can effectively establish an influenza vaccine program, we adapted our model to incorporate influenza vaccination and morality. We applied age-based allocations of vaccines to determine how to allocate constrained supplies to minimize mortality. We found that prioritizing school-aged children for vaccination minimized mortality, particularly under low vaccine supplies. These results show the benefits of indirect effects of vaccinating an age group with low influenza mortality, but high social mixing in a population.

Note: CEIRR CMC events are open only to CEIRR participants. The meeting and discussion are confidential.