Forecasting the Future in Greater Los Angeles

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California Endowment

1000 Alameda Street

Los Angeles, CA 90012

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This June at a workshop specially designed for nonprofit professionals who serve health or social services sectors, data experts from the UCLA Health Forecasting Project are sharing tools and resources as they look into the future to see what Greater Los Angeles looks like in the future and what community needs will be.

What is the UCLA Health Forecasting Project? A fascinating program that supports comprehensive data- driven decision making to improve health through rigorous health forecasting. With over a decade of experience, they combine innovative modeling techniques with historical trends to provide short- and long-term health forecasts. They simulate a wide array of topics affecting health, including shifting demographics such as the aging population.

How can these forecasts add value to your work? Cities, hospitals, community groups, health and planning departments can use the forecasts to prioritize resources by identifying high- risk subgroups with the greatest potential for investment impact; strengthen grantwriting by describing and validating anticipated health outcomes; and assess long-term health needs.

Forecasting the Future in Los Angeles
Friday, June 30, 2017
8:30am – 10:30am
The California Endowment, 1000 Alameda Street, Los Angeles
Who’s Invited: Anyone with an interest in the grants profession
Cost: $10 (free for chapter members)

Health Forecasting logo

Health Forecasting UCLA uses an innovative computer simulation model to forecast the prevalence of chronic health conditions and related behaviors to inform investments in the health of the community.

Understanding the past and exploring the future of health is critical for strategic and efficient decision-making. Health Forecasts enable community groups, hospitals, cities, and counties to examine the state of health through the year 2040 following current trends and after implementing evidence-based interventions to improve health.

For over fifteen years, Health Forecasting combines research-based linkages between determinants of health, such as race/ethnicity, educational attainment, age group, and gender with epidemiologic trends to reveal health disparities, identify opportunities for impactful investing, and assess interventions for their custom population.

Health Forecasting offers customized population reports based on zip code boundaries to answer questions, such as:

  • What does the health status of my community look like now? How will it change in five, ten, twenty years as demographic population changes?
  • How can I identify high-risk groups in my community?
  • What are the short and long-term implications of various best practice interventions within my unique population?

The forecasts of health and evidence-based intervention scenarios help anticipate, prepare, and plan for healthier communities.


Dr. Brian Cole

Brian Cole, Dr.P.H., is program manager and lead analyst for the Health Impact Assessment Group at the UCLA School of Public Health, conducting and providing technical assistance on HIAs on a wide range of public policies and projects, including Living Wage Ordinances, urban redevelopment, school programs and transportation projects. Overlapping this work in HIA, Dr. Cole is also engaged in research on the environmental determinants of physical activity in school, workplace and community settings. He teaches courses in school-based health education and community organization for public health promotion. He earned his Doctor of Public Health degree from the UCLA School of Public Health and Bachelor degrees in Environmental Science and Biology from Washington State University.

Peggy Vadillo Orenstein, MPP

Peggy V. Orenstein is a Research Analyst for the UniHealth Foundation sponsored project, ‘Health Forecasting for Nonprofit Hospital Community Benefit Planning’. She works with Health Forecasting’s simulation programmers to design, validate, and calibrate the model to assist nonprofit hospitals with their community health needs assessments and inform their community benefit implementation plan.

Peggy transforms simulation model output into customized, interactive data visualization reports for hospitals, cities, planning agencies, and county health departments across Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties. The reports include forecasts of preventable chronic conditions and modifiable health behaviors through the year 2040 and incorporate hospital-based interventions to improve health. Peggy completed her bachelor’s degree in Political Science and Advertising from the University of Southern California (USC). She received her master’s degree in Public Policy from the USC Price School of Policy, where she specialized in communicating public policy and program evaluation.

Jeroen van Meijgaard

Jeroen designed the Health Forecasting simulation model since the project's inception. He worked as a principal administrative analyst at UCLA for nearly a decade. He is currently a consultant with the health forecasting project and works in the private sector as Director of Health Informatics, at companies such as The Wonderful Company and MD Insider.


UCLA Center for Health Advancement - http://uclacha.org/

Health Forecasting - www.health-forecasting.org

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California Endowment

1000 Alameda Street

Los Angeles, CA 90012

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