MPA Phoenix Chapter Meeting Sept. 8th 2008

When: Monday September 8th, 2008; Registration 5:15pm; Networking and Business Card Exchange; Meeting Starts at 5:45 pm

Where: Microsoft Desert Mountain District; 2929 N. Central Avenue; Suite 1400; Phoenix, AZ 85012 Between Thomas & Catalina

How: Pizza and soda provided by Microsoft; Parking (at a cost of $1.00 per ½ hr) is available at Phoenix Plaza Parking Garage

Members Trial Membership for non-members Free 90 Day Trial Membership 

Integrating Risk into Project Scheduling

Straight forward application of MS Project as a project scheduling tool would use single-point duration estimates for individual task durations, which, in itself, is generally optimistic.  A better approach would be to use the integrated PERT capability to apply multi-point estimates.  In reality, duration estimates are best represented by a probabilistic distribution and start-to-finish completion times developed by iterated simulations of the schedule network against these distributions.

This presentation will review the PMI^® process of risk management, discuss means of representing duration estimates within MS Project, and extend these concepts to provide advanced probability-based simulation and branching in project schedule execution through the use of a third party add-in.

Presented by Scott Brunton – Scott is a Senior Consultant with Lewis & Fowler (www.lewisandfowler.com) currently providing Planning support to a local defense subcontractor for the NASA Orion Program.  He has delivered years of experience in the DoD proposal management and commercial engineering/business development & analysis domains.  Scott holds Masters Degrees in Business Administration and Electrical Engineering, is PMP and Six Sigma Greenbelt certified, and referees ice hockey as a hobby.