Concepts and Application
Most attendees and market participants, whatever their background in Technical, Fundamental or Quantitative Analysis, will find they have been ill-equipped to engage in the markets without the specific training this course affords.
This 2 day workshop is designed for traders and investment managers of all asset classes and will provide an in-depth, practical and quantitative understanding of the discipline of Risk-Opportunity Analysis developed by Ralph Vince, which also includes his Optimal f and Leverage Space Portfolio Models.
Each delegate should bring his own laptop and will be equipped with relevant software in order to follow and investigate both the underlying concepts as well as their practical application during the workshop.
1. Determining your criteria
2. Concepts of Risk-Opportunity Analysis Part 1
3. Software tools Part 1
4. Concepts of Risk-Opportunity Analysis Part 2
5. Software tools Part 2
6. How to use the concepts to satisfy different criteria
7. Real-world, robust implementations of the concepts to satisfy given criteria.
A message from Ralph Vince
If you take one seminar or course in the remainder of this year, I hope you choose my 2-day Risk-Opportunity Analysis course in Tampa, November 13 & 14. I say this because if you are involved in the markets, or in any endeavor involving risk and payoffs, you really need to know this stuff. This isn’t just about Optimal f or position sizing – that’s but only one facet of it.
Believe me when I tell you that the conventional notions regarding nearly everything from portfolio allocations and composition, trading system or methodology metrics of comparison, optimal growth allocations, risk metrics used in the industry, down to the very criteria of selecting what is a viable wager and what is not, are badly flawed. This course will show you why that is so, and, more importantly, the correct way, mathematically, to calculate these things in a unified discipline that you can then take into the real-world trenches with you and apply.
Why I am doing this
In times past, I would consult with large traders and hedge
funds over their position size and risk management algorithms. Yet, each
consultation, I found, was a near duplicate of the previous. All traders, all
funds, were faced with the same problems, the same dilemmas, and their
solutions involved using the same tools. Concurrently, retail traders would seek
me out and ask for advice regarding again, the same essential problems. Questions like "What is the optimal amount I should trade in the future, since I don't know what the future has in store?" or "If I don;t use expectation as a criterion in selecting a risk-opportunity, what then DO I use as a criterion?" and on and on.
My dilemma then was one of charging institutions a nice fee for duplicating what other institutions were inquiring, and then delivering a watered-down version, gratis, to the retail folks who sought me out. This was an uncomfortable, untenable situation for me.
At the same time and as a result of these consultations, I could see that what this range of ideas comprised didn’t simply fit into a tidy bin that could be labeled with the trite term "Position Sizing." It didn’t fit into the discipline of Technical Analysis, nor the discipline of Quantitative Analysis (though practitioners from both may employ some of these ideas). It used probability and statistics like so many other disciplines, but the range of these ideas was so broad that it comprised a discipline of its own, one I call "Risk-Opportunity Analysis."
Many of you know me from my work on the Optimal f idea. But Risk-Opportunity Analysis is much broader than merely that. Here is a 2-day course where we study the underlying concepts of when a risk should be assumed or not (and it is not what everyone thinks it is!), look at what should be our allocation so that we can meet what our criteria are (they may not be mere growth optimality) and what kind of risks we are assuming.
If you think it is too math-intensive, you’re wrong. Yes, there’s lots of math if you want it. But, as I have been quoted as saying:
"The real challenge to anyone cobbling an equation is to accompany the seemingly impenetrable with the same in graphic form. If done properly, the impenetrability lifts, the simplicity and beauty resonate."
"To simply be able to manipulate symbols is not what mathematics is. Rather, it is being able to convey what is in the mind's eye, and now we certainly have the technological tools to do this."
Whatever equations are covered in this 2-day intensive course are accompanied by graphic illustrations of the concepts occurring in the equation, so that even if you aren’t mathematically inclined, you will readily understand the underlying concepts.
Lots of New Material
The conceptual underpinnings are covered at length in this two day course. At the end of this course, you will know more about assessing and analyzing risks, more about how much to risk in a future prospect, than anyone who has not taken the course, regardless of who they are! This 2-day course has been described by others who have taken it as “A full semester of graduate school packed into 2 days.”
(Except you won’t be able to learn any of this in any graduate school. Not yet anyways, and certainly not at this price.)
Finally, after a thorough coverage the concepts behind Risk-Opportunity Analysis, we will study how to implement the concepts in the real world. You will learn how you can take the concepts and apply them to your actual trading. So you will not only be an expert at the concepts behind this discipline, you will also know how to go about implementing them in a workable, robust manner that produces real results for you – results you won’t obtain from the mere study of technical analysis or quantitative finance.
I hope you can join me in Tampa in November. It’s usually a very good time with a small group of very good people, and we usually go out and have a wonderful dinner on Saturday night together on me. The seminar is at the Tampa Airport Marriott, located within the airport itself, and not more than a short walk from your gate. No taxi’s, no shuttles, no rental cars, no nonsense. If you are travelling from abroad, there is no easier port of entry. In fact, wherever yo uare travelling from, I do not think there is a more convenient airport or a more convenient location.
This course is not a lot of fluff, it’s very intense, very fun and you will learn far more than you think you will. It isn’t a difficult topic either, and as I said, I really think you need to know this stuff.
Dates and Times:
Saturday, November 13 at 9 a.m. through roughly 5 or 6 p.m. with a 1 hour break for lunch.
Sunday, November 14 at 9 a.m. through roughly mid-afternoon.
Cancellation Policy: You may cancel for a full refund minus USD $60 fee anytime prior to 30 September 2010. You may cancel for a refund of USD $1,000 anytime between 1 October 2010 and 9 November 2010. After 9 November, no refunds will be issued in the event of cancellation.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED WITHIN THIS SITE, SUPPORT AND TEXTS. OUR COURSE(S), PRODUCTS AND SERVICES SHOULD BE USED AS LEARNING AIDS. IF YOU DECIDE TO INVEST REAL MONEY, ALL TRADING DECISIONS ARE YOUR OWN. OUR TRACK RECORD IS FROM REAL TRADES ARE NOT HINDSIGHT. AT TIMES HYPOTHETICAL EXAMPLES ARE ALSO PROVIDED. THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS ARE SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
When & Where
Ralph Vince is by profession a computer programmer writing analytical programs for funds, large traders and professional gamblers. He is the author of five books on investing in his field of expertise, portfolio management and portfolio/trade optimization.
In his latest book, In The Leverage Space Trading Model, Vince offers a groundbreaking contribution to the literature that builds on a lifetime of expert analysis to deliver not only a superior new portfolio model, but takes the entire discipline of portfolio management to a new level.
To quote a few industry leaders:
"If Ralph Vince writes it, I read
it...every word, every thought this guy has produced has led me to additional
market profits. Money management is clearly the way to the kingdom of wealth in
the investment world and Ralph gives you the keys in this book."
—Larry Williams, trader, fund manager, and author of Trade Stocks & Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report and Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading
“I have known Mr. Vince for many years and he is quite simply one of the brightest minds in the industry. Do not miss this opportunity to share his insights into the investment process. John Bollinger, CFA, CMT, author of Bollinger on Bollinger Bands.
Mr. Vince’s books are utilized as text books for university financial engineering programs and he is a lecturer at universities and financial seminars worldwide.
Books by Ralph Vince:
The Leverage Space Trading Model: Reconciling Portfolio Management Strategies and Economic Theory (Wiley Trading 2009)
The New Money Management: A Framework for Asset Allocation (Wiley Trading 1995)
The Mathematics of Money Management: Risk Analysis Techniques for Traders (Wiley Trading 1992)